From Real Clear Politics Sept. 9, 2008:
The graph above is an average of the latest polls (see below). It does not include the Zogby Poll for September 5th and 6th which shows McCain with a 3% lead over Obama.
Prior to the selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate most polls showed a rather flat election with Obama holding a slight lead. We may shortly return to a situation where the race is basically tied, but the selection of Sarah Palin is a game changer on multiple levels benefiting the McCain-Palin campaign.
Informed readers know that the battle to win the White House is won state by state as the two campaigns fight for the Electoral College Votes necessary to reach the magic number of 270. Current predictions (run your cursor over the states in this example) for the Electoral College vary widely and are mostly based on polling information that predates the conventions. Most show Obama with an advantage.
But that's all beginning to change and it's good news for McCain-Palin. Rasmussen Reports is conducting a series of surveys in swing states. The first reports are in for: Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia (click each state link for detailed analysis).
The most startling news is the 7 point lead McCain-Palin has over Obama-Biden in Ohio. Along with the tie in Florida and Obama's mere 2 point lead in Pennsylvania the trends in electoral math don't look good for Obama.
The driving factor in these results is clear: Sarah Palin! She has been enormously helpful in driving up the positive image of McCain:
Rasmussen Reports:Who better to address the basic pocketbook issues which impact American families than a mother with small children who not only shoots her own food but shops at Wal-Mart?
A number of themes emerge from the data that are consistent across all five states:
· McCain is trusted more than Obama in all five states.
· In all five states, McCain is viewed more favorably than Obama.
· Also, in all five states, Sarah Palin draws higher “Very Favorable” ratings than any other candidate.
· In all states except Colorado, McCain enjoys a bigger margin among Republicans than Obama does among Democrats. In Colorado, they are even.
· Economic issues are the top issue in all five states with national security matters a distant second.
· The number who would not be comfortable with Obama as President is higher in every state than the number saying the same about McCain. This is consistent with national polling data showing that McCain voters are more likely than Obama supporters to be primarily voting against the other candidate.
· Obama has the edge among unaffiliated voters in three states, McCain in two. Nationally, unaffiliated voters are fairly evenly divided.
· Pennsylvania has more undecided voters than any other state—seven percent (7%). Most of these are Democrats or unaffiliated voters.
It's still early goings yet but as the Palin effect takes hold in states where Obama ran weakly against Hillary and states where families identify with the authenticity of Sarah Palin's story, we are likely to see more leakage from the Obama's poll margins.
As we approach the fall debates, including the one between Palin and Biden, the overall trend is favorable to the McCain-Palin campaign.