We've known disappointment before. Readers may recall how Doug Hoffman was said to be ahead in polls by 5 points in the New York 23rd Congressional Distict special election only to lose. But keep in mind that the vote cast against the Democrat would have made a majority for Republicans if the vote had not been split with Scozzofava.
There are one or two lone voices out there warning that Brown could lose today to Coakley. The most prominent among them is pollster John Zogby whose comments to Sean Hannity yesterday on his radio show are a minority view among pundits and analysts.
Dems for Brown!
Still, with warnings about the power of the Democrat machine in Massachusetts there are ominous signs that their ability to get out the vote will not work this time. Boston Globe columnist Kevin Cullen remarks how he visited the heart of Boston's minority community yesterday and found only two campaign signs for Coakley. A year ago, the entire neighborhood was festooned with Obama signs. Cullen sought out the one business where a Coakely sign was on display and found this:
Besides the sign flapping at the gas station, the only other Martha Coakley sign on Blue Hill Ave. was in the window of Mattapan Family Laundry. Edgar Martinez was behind the counter and he said he knows absolutely nothing about Martha Coakley.Hopenchange hasn't done anything for the minority community in Boston. Do Democrats really think they will rally to Coakley's defense?
Edgar Martinez is 22 years old, and 14 months ago he voted in his first and so far only election, and he cast his ballot for Obama. “I remember then, when Obama was running, that was all we talked about, my friends, my family. We were excited,’’ he said. “I haven’t heard anybody I know talking about this election.
“All my friends voted for Obama. A lot of them were like me. It was the first time we voted. Even older people in my family, it was the first time they voted. Everybody thought things would get better. But they haven’t. I know a lot of people who have lost their houses this year. It’s sad. All my friends are saying Obama promised a lot but he’s doing nothing. I don’t know if that’s true. But that’s what my friends are saying.’’
Edgar Martinez was born in Guatemala and came here as a boy. He used to work as a security guard.
“I got laid off,’’ he said.
Mike Memoli finds that not only are many Obama voters staying home, they are switching to vote for Brown in large numbers. In poll after poll, the number of Democrats who are voting for Brown is surprisingly high; up to 20+% in three polls. Republicans are staying with Brown. Very few defections to Coakley. Why the switch?
Obama is facing Mass. defectionPolls Close at 8 PM: Reader Chat?
By JENNIFER FERMINO
New York Post
January 19, 2010
..."I'm a lifelong Irish Catholic Democrat. I'm voting for Brown because of terror and health care," said Mike Keefe, 52, of Arlington, Mass.
Other longtime party members echoed his sentiments.
"My parents go back to John F. Kennedy, Camelot and FDR. But the Democratic Party has abandoned them, and they don't know it yet," said John Pierce, 50, a Democrat who is backing Brown because he supports his calls for lower taxes and his opposition to Obama's health-care reforms.
We'll be following the results here. If there is enough interest we may also open an online reader chat. Drop a comment below if you are interested in participating.