Friday, October 29, 2010

Battle for the Senate: Final Poll Roundup

GOP takeover still a longshot!

Note: Polling graphs below are live linked to Real Clear Politics and will update automatically with new polls.

The last batch of polls for election 2010 have been coming in to Real Clear Politics fast and furious. The RCP map for senate contests (click state for race report) has six tossup races in PA, WV, CO, NV, WA and IL. If the GOP wins all six, they take control of the Senate.

If you look at the individual polls for each race, you'll notice that the results vary, sometimes widely. Hence, the RCP averages. One thing is clear, many of these races have become incredibly tight and well within the margin of error for individual polls. That means anything could happen on election day. It all depends on which side is more effective in turning out the vote and that is one area where the GOP is expected to have a strong advantage (though that strength also varies by state). Also, keep in mind that in close races, the impact of voter fraud or Democrat attempts to manipulate vote totals in their favor becomes a factor.

First the Bad News

In West Virginia, where Republican John Raese was once ahead, all recent polls show Democrat Manchin with a lead (RCP average, sorry, no graph). Though the most recent poll, Rasmussen, shows Manchin with only a three point lead which is close enough to be overcome in the final days. See the ad below that Raese is running in WV reminding voters of how Manchin once embraced Pelosi and Obama.

In California (click for list of polls), the race between Fiorina(R) and Boxer(D) had been much closer. Fiorina was in the hospital this week with an infection which certainly didn't help.

Nail Biting Time

In Washington state, the race between Rossi(R) and Murray(D) suddenly got tight again with polls either tied or a one or two point difference. The recent turndown in support for Murray is good news for Rossi in the closing days:

Slightly better news, but still way too close for comfort, in Colorado where Ken Buck has a razor thin lead in most polls.

Better News

My #1 top priority race is the Nevada senate contest where Sharron Angle is looking better by the day. What every campaign wants to see is a line pointing sharply UP with an advantage that is growing over the opponent right before voting day:

In Illinois, the race got very tight a few weeks ago. Now it appears Kirk(R) is restoring his early lead with what could be a strong finish:

Republican Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania has also restored an earlier lead but still too close to the margin of error:

In Kentucky Republican Rand Paul appears to be pulling away from Mr. Smear Ad, Jack Conway(D):

Marco Rubio(R) saw a dip in his steady lead over both Crist(I) and Meek(D)in two polls recently. But there is every expectation that he will prevail with a strong victory on November 2nd:

Unfortunately, we might see a situation where we lose control of the Senate by ONE seat. If so, some Delaware voters may regret dumping the RINO Castle. They may have the communist Coons in his place and the Dems running the show!

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