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Tuesday, December 21, 2010

More Bad News for Dems: Census to Shift More Congressional Districts/Electoral Votes to GOP

And with the huge wave in GOP state elections, redistricting will greatly benefit GOP!

Just when Obama is trying to get his mojo back more bad news for the Dems reminding them of the consequences of their disastrous policies both nationally and on the state level.

Americans are fleeing states run by Democrats and pouring into low tax, high growth states like Texas. The 2010 Census, which today released the report which decides how congressional districts are reapportioned on the basis of population shifts is bad news for Democrats:

Texas will gain four new House seats, and Florida will gain two. Gaining one each are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington.

Ohio and New York will lose two House seats each. Losing one House seat are Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

Florida will now have as many U.S. House members as New York: 27. California will still have 53 seats, and Texas will climb to 36.

In 2008, President Barack Obama lost in Texas and most of the other states that are gaining House seats. He carried most of the states that are losing House seats, including Ohio and Pennsylvania. Each House district represents an electoral vote in the presidential election process, meaning the political map for the 2012 election will tilt somewhat more Republican.

For the first time in its history, Democratic-leaning California will not gain a House seat after a census.
A map showing state by state changes is available at the offical U.S. Census web site.

The reapportionment of these seats to red states is a likely win for the GOP as they control many of the state houses and legislative bodies that will draw the boundaries for new congressional districts to favor the GOP.

Electoral Map Shifts in GOP Favor

And with each new congressional district comes an electoral vote that makes Obama's chances of re-election slightly more difficult:

Ultimately, states voting against Obama in 2012 gained eight electoral votes while states supporting him in 2008 lost eight — a total shift of 16 electoral votes. With what political observers see as a likely tightening of the electoral college map from the 365-173 vote victory Obama had over John McCain in 2008.
Of course these electoral shifts are the least of Obama's problems. The huge swing to the GOP in the Great Lakes states, particularly Ohio and Indiana, combined with the likely 2012 loss in North Carolina which basically tied in 2008 and other potential states like Florida make Obama's re-election an uphilll fight.

But before we get complacent and sit back expecting another big GOP win in 2012, keep in mind that structural deficiencies in GOP grass roots efforts have yet to be addressed. Don't expect Obama and the Dems to give up their advantage in this area in key states!

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