Monday, October 29, 2012

Eyes on Ohio: Obama Still Has Slight Edge.... BUT!

With a week to go Romney is pulling out all the stops in the Buckeye state!

Last Thursday I put up my latest Electoral College map. Since then, new polls have been coming in at a frenetic pace for Ohio which remains the key battleground. Here are the latest:
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Visit Real Clear Politics for the latest Ohio polls.
I highlighted the polls in which Romney was ahead or tied. Note that in the most recent polls only Rasmussen has a slight lead for Romney. Can Romney pull a rabbit out of a hat in the last week? Hard to do in Ohio where early voting has been underway for weeks. Voter fraud benefiting Democrats is always a worry in close elections and especially so in Ohio where you don't have to prove you are eligible to vote, only claim you are to register. One report of busloads of Somalis who don't speak English and have no valid proof of citizenship being driven to the polls by Democrats in Columbus raise the spectre of massive vote fraud which could sway a close election.

Despite these challenges Romney is working overtime in Ohio to bring the Buckeye state over the line on election day. If he fails to do so, the election map dictates that not only must he hold states like Colorado in which he has a very narrow lead (also susceptible to fraud and the Democrat machine) but also take a state like Wisconsin where Obama holds a slightly larger lead.

As I did in my electoral map post from last week, I want to caution readers to consider the investment Obama has made in campaign offices and field staff in key states. This chart shows the disparity between Romney and Obama in field offices staffed with paid workers coordinating trips for voters to early voting and possibly assisting in voter fraud as this report from Virginia implicating the son of a Democrat congressman indicates.

The bottom line: The election remains too close to call but with a slight advantage to Obama. It will be up to Romney to wring the last few votes from Ohio and other key states in this final week. If he succeeds, he wins!

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