Monday, April 18, 2016

In Georgia, Trump Snookered Again. If he can't manage delegate selection process what makes you think he can defeat Hillary?

Hillary will be much more devious than Ted Cruz ever dreamed!

On Saturday the Georgia Republican Party held district conventions to select the delegates that will attend the Republican National Convention in Cleveland in July. At these district meetings the Cruz and Rubio supporters showed up in force; Trump supporters not so much. Despite the fact that Trump won the Georgia Primary by nearly 40% and was assigned 42 delegates many of those actual delegates will be Cruz supporters. By state law those delegates are bound to vote for Trump on the first ballot. But if there is a second ballot they are free to vote for Cruz or another candidate.

As they do whenever they get out organized, Trump supporters are hopping mad. But they have only themselves to blame. As in other states like Colorado if Trump supporters don't show up at these meetings they have no valid complaint to make if things don't go their way.

Trump likes to brag that our leaders are stupid and that he is smart and will get smart people to work for him. But apparently it's the Cruz campaign that has a better understanding of the process and how to effectively organize.

And what does this say about Trump's ability to organize a general election campaign if he were the nominee? Does he think Hillary or any Democrat is going to be more evenhanded than Ted Cruz? I'm reminded of the following chart from the 2008 presidential campaign. Obama outspent McCain in key states by about 3 to 1. That enabled him to finance a get out the vote effort, particularly through early voting and field offices to give him the edge in those vital states. Obama did the same thing in 2012 while Romney wasted his money on campaign ads. Have we learned our lesson now? I'm not so sure.

Democrats know that to win you need to organize in key states. Why hasn't the GOP figured this out?
There is no evidence to indicate Trump is building the kind of campaign infrastructure that would allow him to prevail in a general election against the Democrats. And if he can't out organize Cruz in these state organizational activities there is real concern about his ability to wage the kind of campaign needed this fall!

P.S. The New York Times has an easy and informative graphic presentation to walk readers through the complicated process of translating primary votes to delegates to votes at a convention. If you are confused about the process, and who isn't, take a look.

UPDATE: Trump supporters whining about Missouri delegate assignment after winning ten more delegates than Cruz in primary which Trump won by 1,726 votes. Trump supporters are again AWOL as Cruz forces are more organized. Question: was it fair that Trump got more delegates in what amounted basically to a tie? Is it fair that Trump supporters are whining now even though Cruz supporters are following the rules for delegate assignment?

If Trump supporters are AWOL when the important work of delegate assignment is happening, what makes you think they will be around to make the phone calls, knock on the doors, put up the yard signs and drive voters to the polls? 

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