In the study of physical sciences that are uncorrupted by political agendas and money the rule is that you test a theory over time based on actual observations.
In the case of global warming, the "theory" put forward by those with a political agenda and the "scientists" chasing grant money put forward to advance that agenda have long claimed that as the earth warms, the greenhouse effect would create more frequent and more violent hurricanes. Former Vice President Al Gore capitalized on that fear by using a graphic of Hurricane Katrina devouring the Gulf States in 2005 for his scare book and propaganda film "An Inconvenient Truth." Gore, and "scientists" who accept his political agenda warned that Katrina was just the beginning. It wasn't.
And now, the latest report, peer-reviewed research paper (the Warmists also claimed no credible "peer reviewed" papers dispute their propaganda gives us the FACTS, NOT THEORY:
During the past 6-years since Hurricane Katrina, global tropical cyclone frequency and energy have decreased dramatically, and are currently at near-historical record lows. According to a new peer-reviewed research paper accepted to be published, only 69 tropical storms were observed globally during 2010, the fewest in almost 40-years of reliable records.The chart below, also from the report, shows the decline in what is called "accumulated cyclone energy" worldwide. Note the dramatic decline which is the EXACT OPPOSITE of what Gore and his Warmist buddies predicted would happen:
Furthermore, when each storm's intensity and duration were taken into account, the total global tropical cyclone accumulated energy (ACE) was found to have fallen by half to the lowest level since 1977.
In his new paper, "Recent historically low global tropical cyclone activity", Dr. Ryan Maue, a meteorologist from Florida State University, examined the last 40-years of global hurricane records and found strikingly large variability in both tropical cyclone frequency and energy from year-to-year. Since 2007, global tropical cyclone activity has decreased dramatically and has continued at near-historical low levels. Indeed, only 64 tropical cyclones were observed globally in the 12-months from June 2010 - May 2011, nearly 23-storms below average obliterating the previous record low set in 1977.
But this isn't the first and only time the Warmists scare stories predicting doom and gloom were wrong. For years the Warmists were saying that the polar ice caps would melt and flood the coastlines. As late as 2008 the prediction that this would occur in the following year was "50-50." It didn't happen.
More proof that the theory of manmade global warming is a fraud comes from the actual temperature observations measured against the climate models the Warmists used to scare the pants off everyone decades earlier. In testimony before Congress in 2009, the following chart was produced by a top NASA scientist:
Numbers Don't Lie
It's clear that the actual observations over time of real climate change show nothing like the Warmist scaremongering predictions and yet the Obama Administration continues to pump billions of dollars into promoting the global warming agenda and enriching Al Gore and his green friends with taxpayer money so they may be better able to give generously to Obama's presidential campaign.
But of the billions in taxpayer money for global warming (total $108 billion according to May 2011 GAO report) slightly more than 1% goes to fund satellites and other direct measuring instrumentation that has up to now yielded the best scientific data, nearly all of which has undermined the Warmists alarming prediction.
With Obama pumping billions more into the global warming gravy train (a 557% increase in funding for the Global Climate Change Initiative) it's hard to see how the scientists who sold their integrity for grant money and other favors will come clean any time soon.
But like Obama's failed stimulus, which predicted millions of new jobs for a $trillion in new spending, the truth will one day emerge. Meanwhile, the Heartland Institute is sponsoring it's sixth climate change conference in Washington, DC starting this week with the theme of restoring the scientific method (you test a theory with FACTS). Let's hope that at least a few of those "scientists" in town chasing grant money will stop by and restore their integrity!