Is the 2006 Election Tide About to Turn?

We're being told that there is potentially a massive tidal wave of discontent with conservatives and the Republican Party which will wash over the political landscape like the Tsunami of 1994 and sweep Republicans out of power and hand control in the House of Representatives and perhaps even the Senate over to the Democrats.

Yet, there is one thing that coastal dwellers like myself realize. Tides come in and they also go out.

The question now is whether the tide which currently shows Democrats seizing control of the Legislative Branch of government is still growing or about to ebb and begin receding?

The mainstream media would have you believe that the wave is unstoppable and like a Tsunami, whose initial wave is followed by waves of increasing size, can only grow. They've been running that story now ever since the politically timed Mark Foley Scandal broke.

And in the past week, they sought to weave together the tidal wave for change and scandalmongering with an assertion that the GOP conservative base, and particularly "values voters" in the religious right might desert the GOP in this critical year.

Never mind that the reporters who suggest such nonsense have never been inside a Christian fundamentalist church. They probably have the same Democrat source who leaked the Foley messages telling them it is so. It's difficult if not impossible for any self-identified member of the "religious right" to not vote and watch the ACLU's allies in the Democrat Party take the country further down a road where Christianity is marginalized, prayer not allowed in public schools, but school children can receive abortions on demand.

Then there are the other stories, again from dubious sources, that there are conservatives so fed up with the lack of progress on conservative issues like immigration, government spending and tax policy that they will sit this one out and hand the reigns over to the folks who advocate open borders, massive new federal programs and repeal of all tax cuts. Again, if anyone claims to be part of that group, check his or her voting record. I'm not buying it.

The Good News:

If we really are in a political Tsunami where the right is demoralized and the left energized, then why are President Bush, Karl Rove and GOP Chairman Ken Mehlman talking about holding both the House and Senate? If it's all just morale boosting bravado, they will look like fools on Election Day. Or do they know something we don't know?

Bush, Rove and Mehlman DO know something we don't, but not because it's a secret, but because the media won't tell you.

You've probably already heard that the leading historical indicators as measured by polls suggest that most people think the war in Iraq is a mistake, the country is headed in the wrong direction and most people are planning to vote for Democrats this year. Real Clear Politics keeps a running summary of all these indicators.

And you may have advanced a bit further down the information superhighway and read the few reported stories of how many of these polls have a significantly higher sampling of Democrats, than Republicans. Pollster David Winston released a study last week showing that the standard model for party identification in polling is off in many of this year's polls ranging in amounts from 1-5% over polling from previous years.

Don't forget it was just two years ago that flawed exit polls showed Kerry winning the 2004 presidential election. Polls aren't perfect.

Put aside, for the moment, the problem with Dem oversampling and question bias in polls. Look instead at the specific question of voter enthusiasm between the two parties. GOP Chairman Mehlman released a report last week citing various polls which show that enthusiasm, energy and intensity between the two parties was fairly evenly matched.

Mehlman goes on to point out that: "Despite the media hype, an examination of all the facts makes it clear: the Republican base is active and engaged. No matter how you measure it, whether by record-breaking fundraising, unprecedented volunteerism, or scientific polling, the numbers show that Republicans understand the importance of the choice we all face on November 7. "

You didn't read that in your local newspaper or hear about it on CNN did you? It doesn't quite fit the story line that the GOP is going down to defeat.

Money: The Mother's Milk of Politics. And the GOP Has the Advantage.

Barron's Magazine made quite a splash over the weekend with a story titled "Survivor! The GOP Victory" by Jim McTague who predicts that Republicans will maintain control of both the House and Senate based on an analysis of each candidates ability to raise money in his or her district. In 2004, his predictions for both the House and Senate were remarkably accurate.

The following are a few predictions from McTague's report:



While McTague warns that this method is less reliable for predicting Senate races as it is with House races he goes on to predict that Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, perhaps the most embattled GOP Senator this cycle will pull off a victory.

If readers are interested in testing this method in races of particular interest, OpenSecrets.Org has a state by state online database. From a summary page for the races in each state click on the individual race or district. Look especially at the category for individual contributions. It would be even more meaningful if the database showed us individual contributions broken down by in district/state and out of district/state contributions. It's important to note that many Democrats are relying on out of state donations from big money socialists like George Soros and friends.

Using this method, I looked at the details for the Virginia senate race between George Allen and James Webb. As of the 9/30/2006 financial report Allen raised a total of $14,845,295 with $10,241,914 coming from individuals. Webb raised a total of $4,484,395 with $4,022,376 from individuals. Webb had a higher percentage of individual contributions, but Allen raised significantly more than twice as much in that category.

More Pieces of the Election Puzzle Fall Into Place This Week

Early voting begins in Florida on Monday; soon to be followed by other states. Reading the tea leaves from early voting turnout in those states may give an indicator whether the Dem wave is nothing more than a wash.

Already we are getting hints that GOP efforts to provide absentee ballots is paying off. A report from Colorado shows that absentee ballot requests are way up. If that holds true in other states, we can toss the media generated line that Republicans aren't going to vote out the window.

As the hype over the Mark Foley story subsided,voters across the country began to focus on serious issues. Many races where Republicans were trailing badly began to tighten. The differences in all but a few are in single digits. Considering the margin of error and the built in bias of some polls things may be even closer than they appear.

This week should see an influx of new polls in specific races across the country. Here at Mike's America we'll be watching with anticipation to see if the tide has turned.

Also posted at the Wide Awakes.