Time of Testing for Rudy Campaign

It's been tough sledding for the Rudy campaign lately. As I pointed out earlier in the week, Romney and Huckabee are getting all the attention. And Rudy is continuing to slip in nationwide polls.

Even the candidate is under the weather. Rudy's plan had to return to the Chesterfield, Missouri airport Wednesday night as the candidate became ill with flu-like symptoms. He was taken to a hospital in St. Louis where he is apparently doing well after a check up.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director and former editor-in-chief of the Hotline, goes into more detail about the ups and downs of Rudy's campaign and the great unknown for the future:

Whither Rudy?
Giuliani's camp struggles with an Iowa-New Hampshire conundrum
By Chuck Todd
Political Director
NBC News
Dec. 18, 2007

These should be great days for Rudy Giuliani's presidential campaign.

With long shot Mike Huckabee supplanting Mitt Romney as the frontrunner in Iowa, the early state fight among the Republicans is a jumbled mess. And that's the exact same scenario that the Giuliani campaign has been counting on for its big state delegate strategy to work.

And yet, there's something amiss right now with Giuliani's effort.

Perhaps it was fitting that during the last Republican debate, Giuliani's podium was off to the side, almost out of the picture. Save from a few negative stories in the New York tabs and the tough "Meet the Press" interview earlier this month, Giuliani has seemed to shrink away from the current campaign narrative.

His camp tried to insert Giuliani back into the mix with speech last weekend in Florida. The speech read well, though how the campaign chose to showcase it was just plain odd.
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I get the idea of the speech and the symbolism surrounding Florida. But why not speak on a Monday, and drive the news chatter for the rest of the week? Or why not do it on a Thursday and get people talking over the weekend? Saturday news events can get lost, and this one, in particular, was about trying to get the press to refocus its Giuliani narrative (which was getting lost) and they did it on the hardest day to make news.

But let's forget the critique of how the speech played, and let’s delve into why the Giuliani folks felt they need to do it.

Between the religious fireworks started by Huckabee and Romney and the Clinton campaign's panic attacks, Giuliani is barely registering on the press corps' radar.

He hasn’t made either Iowa or New Hampshire a priority, though he hasn’t totally ruled out campaigning in either state either.

So the question is, did Giuliani's camp miscalculate this decision to "kinda, sorta" campaign in the early states? One can sense the conflict in how the campaign goes about putting together its Iowa and New Hampshire itineraries.
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In hindsight, Giuliani should have either made a full bore effort in every state or skipped the first two states altogether.

Of course, part of Giuliani's pitch has been that he's the most electable Republican and "electable" candidates can't skip participating in swing states like Iowa and New Hampshire.

This may be why Team Rudy decided they couldn't totally call in sick. So then, why not seriously contest both states?
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Giuliani seems to be a candidate without a home right now. Florida’s Jan. 29 primary can’t come soon enough. But there's good news for Giuliani, with Iowa and New Hampshire being so chaotic currently; exactly the scenario he needs to coalesce the large states.

Al Gore tried this strategy in ’88, and while he became a player in the campaign late in the cycle, he couldn’t close the deal. Giuliani’s trying something that’s never been done before. But we have a calendar that we’ve never had before so the idea of something out of the ordinary happening is entirely possible.
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Still, Giuliani needs to figure out how to be relevant in the news cycle between now and Jan. 9. Because his lead is slipping in the national polls and because Iraq and terrorism have been trumped by immigration, the economy and character as issues, the Giuliani camp is having a hard time selling the press on the idea that Iowa and New Hampshire are about winnowing the GOP field between Giuliani and an anti-Giuliani candidate.

It’s not that clear-cut and unless the Giuliani folks can work some magic between now and then, they need to hope Rudy catches fire in New Hampshire, pulls a surprise third place showing in Iowa, chaos reigns supreme in both states, or Hillary Clinton takes off.

Don't forget, there’s been no greater campaign asset for Giuliani than the threat of Hillary Clinton as president.

I've been a fan of Rudy's for many years. He has certainly added some pizazz to the earlier portion of the campaign but seems to be MIA lately. Whether he can turn that around before the January 29th Florida primary remains to be seen. With Romney, Huckabee and now McCain in New Hampshire getting so much attention Rudy will have an even more difficult time getting noticed.