Wednesday, November 03, 2010

Maps Show Massive Nationwide Shift to GOP.

Disappointment over Reid win in NV doesn't dim the Tsunami of change which hit on Tuesday!

Senate: Reid, but also lots of Red!

We won every race in which a GOP incumbent was running and thus far have picked up six seats from Dems including Feingold in Wisconsin. Don't tell the defeated Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas that the voters weren't mad about Obama Care!

Senate wins 2010
Visit Politico for the latest updates of this map.

House a Sea of Red!

60 is the current number of House GOP pickups but a number of the 11 undecided races lean towards the GOP so expect that number to rise. Some big Dems went down to defeat last night. Many had been in office for years. Note the concentration of red around the Great Lakes region and the change from 2008:
2010 House elections

2010 GOP House victory map. Visit Politico for updates.

Here's what the House map looked like after the 2008 House elections:
House 2008 election
Tea Party Bags 30 Democrats!

If you are interested in how effective the Tea Parties were House contests, consider this map from the NY Times. 39 seats which the GOP won were Tea Party candidates. Not bad!

Tea Party House victories [red with black stripes indicates GOP pickup].
Way to Go Governors!

So much red! Note again the red around the Great Lakes. Big states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin switched to the GOP.
2010 Governor's Races

State Legislatures go RED!

From National Journal's Hotline on Call:
Republicans picked up 680 seats in state legislatures, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures -- the most in the modern era. To put that number in perspective: In the 1994 GOP wave, Republicans picked up 472 seats. The previous record was in the post-Watergate election of 1974, when Democrats picked up 628 seats.
The Republican State Leadership Committee which works to elect GOP House and Senate legislative bodies in the states had a big night. They had a target list to switch 17 legislative bodies from Democrat to Republican control. They won 19. Not one legislative body flipped to the Democrats!

Note again the concentration of red around the Great Lakes:
GOP state legislative takeovers
source: National Council of State Legislatures

Here's the total partisan breakdown of legislative bodies incorporating yesterday's gains:

Control by party of state legislatures

What does it mean for 2012?

Look again at the Great Lakes states. In contests for U.S. Senator, U.S. House, Governor and State Legislatures the GOP scored big throughout the region. Overall, the gains in GOP statehouses give them control over the majority of the Electoral College states. New GOP Administrations in key states along with the higher number of elected GOP officials will give the 2012 GOP nominee a big edge we did not have in 2008.

Here's the 2008 Electoral College map:

Flip enough of Obama's 2008 states to red and the GOP wins. Check out the 2012 electoral vote calculator if you wish to test your own scenario.

Solid GOP wins across the board in Great Lakes and other states does not guarantee an Obama defeat in 2012 but certainly makes a victory for Democrats much more difficult.

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