Thursday, August 23, 2012

Even Flawed Polls Which Favor Democrats Show Trend Away From Obama in Key Swing States

Anyone who thinks Obama will turn out greater numbers of Democrats in 2012 than he did in 2008 is fooling themselves!

Thanks to Always on Watch for passing along the news from the Huffington Post of an Electoral College forecast based on economic indicators from all 50 states showing a likelihood of a Romney landslide. The model has correctly forecast every winner in the presidential contest since 1980. The model predicts that swing states like Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Colorado will all be in the Romney column.

It's a stunning prediction which flies in the face of most current polling. But at the same time, polling trends in key states do seem to be tightening in Romney's favor.

A new poll released today confirms that trend in swing states. The Quinnipiac Poll whiles it shows Obama still ahead in key states shows his lead shrinking. This is the same Quinnipiac polling firm which overstated the number of likely Democrat voters in a poll at the beginning of August. The same is true in this current poll.

Ed Morrisey dug through the numbers this time around and found that in the Florida 2012 Quinnipiac poll while the number of Democrats dropped by 2-3 points over 2008 and 2010 the same poll undersampled Republicans by 6-8 points. If the polls results were more in line with a likely turnout model for GOP voters somewhere between the 2008 result and the 2010 result Obama would certainly lose the state.

In Ohio, Quinnipiac's 2012 poll assumed GOP turnout anywhere from 5-11% less than it was in 2008 and 2010. That's the only way Obama could win the state and such an assumption is so highly unlikely that it's laughable.

In Wisconsin, the selection of Paul Ryan has moved that state into a virtual tie even with flawed polls. There are other indicators which show that other states in the Upper Midwest may be moving towards Romney/Ryan as well. In large part that may be because of the energy and vitality which Paul Ryan, a favorite son of the region, has brought to the race.

The bottom line is that the race is much closer than the stalemate in national polls might suggest. Certainly the energy in the past week since Ryan was selected for V.P. is moving in the Republican direction!

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