Tuesday, August 07, 2012

Gallup: Obama Losing 14% of 2008 Voters

A BIG net gain for Romney!

91 Days to VICTORY!

A week ago when we began the COUNTDOWN TO VICTORY, I used a graphic which demonstrated the swing of votes to Obama in 2008 compared with 2004 and wondered how big the swing back would be this year. Now, a new Gallup Poll is helping to answer that question. Gallup asked 2,000 registered voters who said they voted in 2008 what their preference is this time around. Here are the results:

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14% of Obama 2008 voters say they will vote for someone else in 2012. Of that number 9% for Romney. Of McCain 2008 voters, only 8% say they will vote for someone other than Romney.  That's a net gain for Romney of at least 6% and likely to be much higher once undecided voters make up their minds.

This Gallup result confirms anecdotal evidence related in a slew of recent articles showing the disaffection of Democrats with Obama. Here are two of  the most recent (1,2).

How big of a swing does Romney need? The Electoral College Swingometer lets you play political analyst. Punch in the percent of the swing back to Romney you expect and the Swingometer will recalculate the Electoral College based on the margin of victory in each state in 2008. A 9.2% swing gives the edge to Romney with 275 Electoral Votes to 263 for Obama.

9.2% might seem a tall order but with this result from Gallup, all that's needed is a big push from Romney to put him over the top. And with questions about whether Obama's campaign, with it's weakening finances, has already peaked an additional 3-4% for Romney is well within the range of possibility!

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