Tuesday, September 04, 2012

Latest Electoral College Count Shows Swing Favoring Romney/Ryan

The move away from Obama is across the board but the race is still close!

63 Days to VICTORY!

On July 30 I marked the 99 day countdown to the November 6 election with a list of key states Romney needs to win the election. These are states that got caught up in the HopenChange hoopla but most typically vote Republican or are very close. Throughout the 2012 election the key question is how much Obama's tidal wave of support in 2008 will fall off in 2012.

We are now starting to get an answer to that question. At 99 day mark here's an electoral college projection based on the polling at the time:

Photobucket

Notice the change with this map using the latest (September 3) polling numbers. The large area of Great Lakes and Upper Midwest states (and Colorado) moving from lean Obama to toss up shows the movement in favor of Romney/Ryan:

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Full size image from Karl Rove & Co.

If this trend holds (Karl Rove will continue updating the map every week) then the path to victory is much smoother for Romney/Ryan. If a slew of states which went for Obama in 2008 by double digits all of a sudden become possible wins for Romney/Ryan we might conclude that Obama's days in the White House are few in number. Is that why there are rumors about Michelle Obama buying a glitzy house in Hawaii? [Thanks AOW]

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