Would you like the good news or the bad news first? I guess it all depends on who you want to win. OK, the good news for Romney is that North Carolina is totally gone for Obama. States like Florida and Virginia appear to be moving into the Romney column with most polls taken in those states (click the individual links for all states in this post) giving Romney the lead. And in New Hampshire, most polls show Romney ahead. In Colorado, it's pretty tight with two polls favoring Obama and three favoring Romney. I give Romney the nod in all five of these states. There is even a poll with Romney leading in one of Maine's congressional districts (#2). In Maine, they split their electoral college vote. If you win the Congressional District, you win one electoral college vote.
In all the remaining swing states (pictured in light blue) Obama has a lead in most polls. Based on that data, I created the following map:
|Visit Real Clear Politics and make your own Electoral College map.|
Ohio may decide the race. Three recent polls show the race tied in the Buckeye State but five give Obama a lead ranging from 1-5 points. If Romney is able to pull Ohio over the line with his ground game in the next 12 days he can win. But Obama is working overtime to make sure that doesn't happen. Any Ohio conservative who fails to vote for Romney deserves to be horsewhipped!
If Romney fails to win Ohio things get more complicated. He would have to pick up Wisconsin in which Obama leads all recent polls by a mostly narrow margin or get both Iowa and Nevada. In Iowa, Obama and Romney are tied in one poll; Romney ahead in one and Obama ahead in two. Nevada has Obama ahead in all four recent polls and it's a tougher state to win with the big union influence in Las Vegas.
In 2008 and again in 2010 we saw how Democrats overcame slight Republican leads in certain races with an overwhelming groundgame. Sadly, the GOP does not appear to have learned that lesson as the following chart comparing Obama field offices to Romney offices in key states:
|Full size image here. More at Daily Beast.|
We may find in the final week that an anti-Obama bandwagon effect kicks into gear and many of these swing states go solid for Romney. But counting on that to happen may be a recipe for disappointment. Don't trust your gut feeling about this election. There is just too much at stake! Drag your friends, family and associates to the polls!