Friday, October 15, 2010

Setback for GOP Senate Takevover

Dems cut their losses to hold on to thin majority!

The GOP effort to retake the House of Representatives looks to be in great shape. Republican campaign strategists have been expanding the playing field and going after Democrats who were formerly thought to have safe seats. As a measure of how strong the GOP House effort is consider that Republican Michelle Bachmann posted an all time fundraising record of $5.4 million for the third quarter. Meanwhile, Dems are cutting their losses in places like Ohio where their House candidates are in big trouble.

But the race for the Senate has taken a bad turn this week with a slew of new polls giving Dems in key states a slight edge. The Democrat's Senate Campaign Committee (DSCC) recently cut funding for ads to benefit Robin Carnahan in Missouri who is increasingly further behind Republican Roy Blunt in the latest RCP poll roundup.

Instead, the DSCC is putting money into races like that of Harry Reid in Nevada, who is currently tied in the RCP average with Sharron Angle who reported another fundraising record of over $14 million in the third quarter.

Bad Week in WA, WV, IL

Full size image at Karl
  While Republicans had a slight edge and signs of momentum last week in WA, WV, IL and NV, (click the links for each state's RCP average) these races now seem to be tied with a slight edge and momentum moving back to the Democrats.

If these current negative trends hold for the next 17 days here is what RCP projects as the result:
RCP project no tossup (click here for latest). RCP project with tossup races here.
Are you starting to see how important that seat in Delaware would be with RINO Mike Castle as the easy win?

California Wildcard

It's always been an uphill battle for the GOP to retake control of the Senate. Still, there are likely to be a few surprises in the results on November 2nd. We're not going to win every race we expect to win and we might win one or two that we did not. One surprise might be in California, where Dem Barbara Boxer has a slight lead over Carly Fiorina, but even that has narrowed by one point in the last week.

As it was from the start of this election cycle: for the GOP to take control of the Senate we are going to have to win nearly all of these tight races in which we are tied or have a slight lead as well as pick off one or two in which we are slightly behind. Are there enough undecided voters who might be persuaded to pull the lever for some REAL change? Stay tuned!

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