Tuesday, October 09, 2012

Dems Panic as Romney Post Debate Surge Grows

But don't measure the drapes in the Oval Office just yet. Beware Obama's October Surprise!

Writing today, Tuesday, nearly a week after Romney's big debate win there is much reason for optimism among Republicans. Not only did Romney have the biggest debate win in polling history with a whopping 72% of those polled by Gallup saying he won, but overall national polling match ups between Romney and Obama have swung in Romney's favor enough to put him ahead for the first time, in the Real Clear Politics average of national polls.
And in one new swing state poll after another Romney is either leading or the advantage to Obama is within the margin of error. As an indicator of how serious the situation is for Obama his margin over Romney in Pennsylvania, which Obama won in 2008 by over 10 points, is 2 or 3 points in Pennsylvania polls taken since the debate. If Pennsylvania goes to Romney with it's 20 Electoral College votes, the game is over! Even if Obama were to win Ohio (which is tied), with it's 18 EVs.

Also, pay close attention to states like:
  •  Michigan (16 EV) post debate polls Obama up by 3. He won in 2008 by 16 points.
  • Wisconsin (10 EV) post debate poll Obama up by 2.  Won in 2008 by 13 points.
  • Iowa (6 EV) post debate poll Obama up by 2 . Won by 9 points in 2008.
  • Colorado (9 EV) post debate polls give Romney the lead by half a point. Obama won in 2008 by 8 points.
  • Florida (29 EV) post debate polls give Romney a 2-3 point lead. Obama won by 2 points in 2008.
I'm not going to make any big prediction about changes in the Electoral College tallies until we see how deep Romney's  current surge goes and how long it lasts. But it may be telling to note that the change has caused some severe heartburn among Democrats.

Obama Campaign Meltdown?

When Democrat columnist Andrew Sullivan writes a column for the Daily Best titled "Did Obama Just Throw the Entire Election Away" you know there is trouble. Sullivan writes:
I'm trying to see a silver lining. But when a president self-immolates on live TV, and his opponent shines with lies and smiles, and a record number of people watch, it's hard to see how a president and his party recover.
Ignore that bit about Romney lies. After four years of Obama lying (Internet video to blame for Ambassador's death in Libya?) his ever more bitter supporters wouldn't know the difference.

Another report from Chuck Todd at MSNBC indicates that the Obama Campaign may be shaking things up with some new direction at the top. With a nation that continues to suffer extreme economic distress and an Obama campaign talking about Big Bird that would seem like a good idea.

Analyst Sean Trende wonders if any turnaround is possible for a campaign that has defied gravity for far too long. In the end, many voters want to be with a winner. Obama had the advantage of the bandwagon effect in 2008. If, after the debates, Obama loses that advantage he's finished.

But beware an October surprise from a President and party who have shown they are willing to say or do anything to hold on to power. While Obama may have lied about the incompetence of his Administration that led to the murderous attacks in Libya, that won't stop him from staging a military strike timed to his advantage in the election. It won't matter to him whether those he orders to be killed were guilty.

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