- New Ohio poll shows Obama lead at 2 points. Effectively a tie.
- New Michigan poll shows race a tie.
- Tied in new Pennsylvania poll.
The rubber meets the road on Tuesday!
In my Electoral College map from October 25 I gave Obama the edge with a big but about Ohio. Since that time, Hurricane Sandy blew Romney off the front page for three days and Obama recovered somewhat giving him a further slight advantage in the Real Clear Politics averages and electoral map.
But here comes that "but" again! It's a clear fact that Romney is drawing huge crowds; much larger than Obama. Over the weekend Romney kicked off his final push with a huge rally with 30,000 supporters in West Chester Ohio. Compare that to an Obama event in Columbus which drew 4,000. Obama drew crowds of 80,000 in Cleveland in the last days of the 2008 campaign. His crowds now are below those of John McCain
All along the polls have measured a substantial advantage in enthusiasm for Romney and a decline in support for Obama among the Independents and other voting blocs that were key to his victory in 2008. Any poll which shows Obama getting more votes in Ohio, or any other state, than he did in 2008 is flat out WRONG! These trends are especially clear in the Great Lakes states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Michigan where the "shellacking" of 2010 was most pronounced. Obama may continue to have an advantage in the overall Real Clear averages for these states but it's likely that the outcome in a number of them will disappoint his supporters.
I am not prepared to go as far out on a limb as analyst Michael Barone. However, his experience and knowledge is formidable and his views are worth considering. In a Friday article titled "Romney beats Obama, handily," Barone gives Romney the edge in Florida, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. More than enough to win with 315 electoral votes to Obama's 223. Stronger Republican turnout and Obama's failure to hold enough of his 2008 voters is the key.
Karl Rove agrees and cites significant shifts in early voting in Ohio favoring Republicans.
The bottom line: This is NOT a rerun of 2008 when an inexperienced huckster stole the show with a teleprompter and a promise. Many Americans who voted for Obama in 2008 have had four years of economic hardship in which to contemplate their mistake. And nearly all conservatives dispirited in 2008 by the lackluster of John McCain's campaign have seen what can happen to the country when they sit on the sidelines.