Last Minute Predictions: Lunch with Jim Geraghty

Jim Geraghty, who writes the TKS (formerly known as "The Kerry Spot") blog on National Review online was the speaker at a lunchtime gathering of Republicans on Hilton Head Island, this afternoon.

If you read TKS, you'll be impressed by the depth and breadth of his knowledge, particularly when it comes to polls and spotting electoral trends.

Here's a recap of the discussion:

• First, many of the pundits who were writing last week that it is all over but the shouting for the GOP are working with old news. The latest polls show a trend favoring the GOP in what's called a generic ballot (asking if the respondent will be voting for the GOP or DEM candidate) have shifted from DEMS with double digit advantage to half what they were a week ago. Each of the major polling organizations which reported this number over the past few days show the same trend.
• Second, John Kerry really stepped in the "macaca" with his "botched joke" about our troops last week and it caused many people who were upset about the conduct of the GOP to remember that things could be worse. MUCH worse.
• Third, The guilty and death by hanging verdict in Saddam Hussein's trial reminds people why we went into Iraq and the verdict is clear progress. The fact that a major wave of violence did NOT break out after the verdict is also good news.
• Fourth, The much ballyhooed "netroots" campaign of online Democrat kooks like the Daily Kos Kommies have failed to assure a solid base of support for candidates like Ned Lamont in Connecticut where Joe Lieberman maintains a double digit lead and in Montana, where their handpicked favorite Jon Tester is slowly bleeding support.

When it comes to the House, Geraghty's best guess on the outcome for control of the House of Representatives has us losing between 10 and 20 seats.

But even in the seats which were thought to be totally lost there is hope. In the Houston seat vacated by Tom Delay (when was the last time a Democrat vacated a seat just because he was indicted) it was thought the a successful write in campaign with a candidate named Shelly Sekula-Gibbs was too much to ask. But it appears that she has a good chance, even with the weird procedure required to write in her name on electronic machines.

Also, in the Florida seat vacated by Mark Foley (again, Democrats would leave the perp in office and give him an award) Joe Negron has a good chance of winning by asking voters to "Punch Foley for Negron."

And Congressman Tom Reynolds, who as Chairman of the National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee was drawn into the Foley scandal and took a huge hit in the polls, has recovered and is now back in the lead.

So much for Democrat attempts to scandal monger their way to victory in the House.

• That same trend is true in the Senate, where Conrad Burns in Montana was thought to be toast just two weeks ago and is now within the margin of error in all but one poll.
• Michael Steele in Maryland is also within the margin of error and Steele's victory would upset the DEMS entire apple cart for control of the Senate.
• Tennessee: Bob Corker is walking towards Victory.
• Mike DeWine in Ohio has cut his deficit in half in recent polls. Ohio has one of the best oiled turnout machines in the GOP arsenal. If it hits all cylinders Tuesday, DeWine wins.
• In Rhode Island, RINO Lincoln Chafee has halved his deficit with Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse in at least one poll.
• Santorum has closed the gap to single digits in some polls too... Is momentum on his side?

Did I forget anyone?

• Oh, yeah, sorry. First, the bad news: Senator George Allen's race in Virginia makes Geraghty "nervous." Recent shifts may show that Allen peaked too soon. It's hard to think of the "Old Dominion" going Democratic, but they have voted in several DEM candidates in the past, Webb is running as a conservative and the Washington Post has made it their personal mission to reprint any and all trash they can find regarding Allen (and if Allen wins, just wait for the Post to editorialize about the demise of substantive issue-oriented campaigns.)
• Let's see... is there one more I'm forgetting??? Oh! What about Missouri? Geraghty's inside source at the Talent campaign reveals their internal polls show Talent ahead by at least five points and headed for a potentially big win.

If you're a regular reader of Geraghty's TKS, you'll notice he relies on the wisdom of an anonymous sage whom Geraghty calls "Obi Wan Kenobi" whose name many of us would recognize (John?) and whose experience in electoral politics goes back several generations.

Obi Wan reminds Geraghty, and us, that while we immerse ourselves into the daily political ups and downs, most voters do not. But when they walk into that voting booth, and it's just Joe six pack staring at the voting machine, with the full realization of what it means to live in a country where their vote actually DOES count, it becomes an almost religious experience.

Can you imagine the good, decent, hardworking American voter stepping into a voting booth and thinking about the truly life and death issues which swirl around us daily and voting for candidate "X" and by extension for San Francisco's Nancy Pelosi and Las Vegas' Harry Reid?

Stay Tuned!