Thanks to Iowa's decision to move up the date of their caucus to January 3rd 2008, Iowans will see a slew of political ads on television this holiday season. Will the ads become so overwhelming and negative that the viewers and voters of Iowa no longer distinguish between the holiday classic "The Grinch Who Stole Christmas" and the candidates?
But Iowa is just the launching pad for a series of primaries and caucuses that follow shortly after Iowa in New Hampshire (Jan. 8), Michigan (Jan. 15), Nevada (Jan. 19) and South Carolina (Jan. 19) which all set the stage for larger contests to follow in Florida (Jan. 29) and Super Tuesday (Feb. 5).
Up to now all we've had to judge the strength of the individual GOP campaigns are a series of polls, many of which are contradictory. But after Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, there will be definite winners and losers. Those who don't do well in those early contests will find it difficult to raise money and be effective without the momentum the victors carry as they move forward.
At this point, state by state polling is a notoriously bad tool for indicating who will win Iowa or any of these other contests. We all remember how Democrat Howard Dean was ahead in the polls before the 2004 Iowa caucus which he lost to John Kerry. Who can forget Dean's scream (video here) after he predicted he would go on to all the other states and eventually "take back the White House."
Polling does however provide a good indicator of trends which show which campaign has momentum and energy. The best tool to analyze the myriad of polling for each state is the Real Clear Politics polling average. And the chart they produce gives you as good an indicator as you can find:
Real Clear Politics GOP Iowa Poll Averages
Compare the national polling averages and top four GOP contests in one graphic page here.
Mike's Poll Review
Click individual state link for full RCP poll information.
Iowa caucus Jan.3, 41 delegates: Huckabee Surge Unstoppable?
Iowa is a two man contest between Huckabee and Romney. Romney has a lot of money to spend, but Huckabee has momentum, energy and enthusiasm on his side. With less than a month to go a lot can happen. Just ask Howard Dean.
New Hampshire Jan. 8, 24 delegates: Romney Lead Solid
Unless one of the other candidates in the back of the Iowa pack comes out stronger than expected Romney is likely to win New Hampshire. The question is, what strength will McCain, Giuliani and Thompson show? Without some good news every step after New Hampshire and Iowa becomes more difficult.
Michigan Jan. 15, 61 delegates: Romney favored?
The latest polls for Michigan show Giuliani ahead. But considering how Romney's father was once governor of the state and coming off a possible big win in N.H. Romney is the favorite. Third place won't count for much, but both Thompson and McCain are well ahead of Huckabee.
Nevada caucus Jan. 19, 34 delegates: Giuliani Leads
If Rudy wins Michigan, he could safely hold onto his lead in the Nevada caucus 4 days later. His lead could disappear if Romney is seen to be picking up steam.
South Carolina Jan. 19, 47 delegates: Huckabee Surging
In the 2000 GOP contest, SC was the conservative firewall which derailed John McCain's Straight Talk Express. Will this first in the South primary again play a pivotal role before moving on to Florida and Super Tuesday?
In two of the latest polls, Huckabee is now safely ahead. But Romney isn't likely to give up without a fight. That leaves Thompson and Giuliani again battling for the poor distinction of third place.
Survivors left for Super Tuesday?
In a visit to Mike's America, John McCain declared to his supporters that "We need to win South Carolina." He's declared he "will win" in New Hampshire. Without a win, or strong showing in one or the other he is finished.
What about Fred Thompson? Will he have enough money and support to continue into Super Tuesday?
Right now it's a two man race between Huckabee and Romney. But after the first round in early and mid January the ground shifts to Rudy's favor.
Giuliani is banking on a big win in Florida (January 29, 141 delegates) which propels him onto further big delegate victories in states like:
California Feb. 5, 173 delegates
New Jersey Feb. 5, 52 delegates
New York Feb. 5
Pennsylvania
Mike's America Prediction: Anything Can Happen
That's bold and daring isn't it?
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