Fred's Revenge

Mike Huckabee stole Fred's thunder in the early primaries. On Saturday in SC, Fred got his revenge!

One candidate stood between Mike Huckabee and victory in Saturday's GOP Presidential Primary in South Carolina: Fred Thompson. McCain won the primary with 33% of the vote to Huckabee's 30% (results).

Looking at the SC exit polls, it's clear that McCain didn't win conservatives. 69% of South Carolina voters identified themselves as conservatives and their vote went to Huckabee: 35%, McCain 26% and Thompson 19% and Romney 16%.

35% of conservatives went for both Thompson and Romney, denying Huckabee a win and further underscoring the very large number of conservatives who will vote for anybody but Huckabee and McCain.

Those who attend church weekly or more often made up 64% of the GOP vote. Huckabee took 41% of that vote and McCain only 27%. But it was Thompson who cut into Huckabee's weekly church going base at 15%, 2 more points than Romney at 13%. Enough votes right there to bring the overall total close to a tie between McCain and Huckabee.

[Note: McCain got 50% of those who never attend church].

Fred's Late Surge Undeniable Factor

In the three days prior to Saturday's election 16% of the exit poll sample made up their mind. Of those, 29% voted for Huckabee, 35% for McCain, 22% for Thompson, and 11% for Romney. That surge, more than any other factor blunted any momentum Huckabee had.

Of course the beneficiary here was the John McCain, whose natural base was much stronger with self described liberals, moderates and Independents.. One McCain supporter declared: "Thank God For Fred Thompson."

What Next for Fred?

Reports are that Fred has returned to Tennessee to visit with his ailing mother and consider his options. The word is that he still retains some funds which could help him mount campaigns in other states, but it is doubtful he has enough to compete in larger states like Florida.

Fred's vote also splits Romney's strength which continues to benefit John McCain in states like Florida.

Huckabee is said to be planning on a resurgence in the heartland arc of Arkansas, Georgia, Alabama, Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee. If Huckabee won all of those (and they are almost all winner-take-all states), he would take home a surprisingly large 308 delegates. Would Thompson voters continue to stick with him, splitting the anti-McCain anti-Huckabee vote with Romney knowing Fred is very unlikely to win? Again, doubtful.

The Bottom Line: Stop McCain ?

At some point, voters who find McCain and Huckabee unacceptable will have to coalesce around a single candidate to block either of those from continuing to exploit their respective strengths and capture the nomination. Mitt Romney holds an advantage over Fred in that he has already won a number of contests, holds the highest number of delegates and has all the money he needs to mount a campaign.

We should know soon what Fred's intentions are. Also, the Florida GOP primary is a week from Tuesday on January 29th. Currently, Rudy and Mitt are slightly below McCain's average in Florida polls. Hopefully, the overall picture will become clearer after Florida as we move into Super Tuesday.