Post New Hampshire GOP Analysis

The day after the Iowa Caucus I concluded that John McCain was the big winner in Iowa, even though he came in third.

The momentum he got from unexpectedly placing third propelled an already re-invigorated New Hampshire campaign to victory in last night's primary (results).

What Next?

Michigan in the next primary on Tuesday, January 15th. But polling (Real Clear Averages) for that contest has been non existent for the last three weeks during which time the entire dynamics of the race has changed.

Michigan has 61 delegates at stake in the GOP race. Romney will attempt to make Michigan a firewall. It is the state where his father was a very populat Governor. For many candidates the focus seems to be on South Carolina which votes on Saturday January 19th and has 47 delegates to assign.

On Thursday, the South Carolina GOP is hosting a debate of GOP presidential candidates in Myrtle Beach which will be televised on Fox News. At that time we may see some new strategy on the part of McCain, who insisted during a visit to Mike's America in November that he could win South Carolina.

To do so, McCain will have to defeat Huckabee who is running away in recent SC polls. Up to now, both Huckabee and McCain have been content to work together to maintain the negative focus of their respective campaigns on Romney.

Huckabee has gone out of his way to compliment John McCain. By complimenting McCain Huckabee makes a smart move. If McCain has to take down Huckabee to win in SC, he will appear mean after all the nice things the Huck has said about him. And with Huckabee's lead in SC, he can afford to continue playing Mr. Nice.

Meanwhile, Romney and Fred Thompson will likely end up battling for third place. Romney can afford another loss. The question is: can Fred?

All the while, Rudy Giuliani sits down in Florida (polls here) waiting. While his campaign prefers the slogan "Tested. Ready. Now." I'd say he's spent enough time in Florida to consider changing that to "Tanned, rested, ready."

Delegate Counts

With the race so far providing no clear winner, the all important delegate count will soon be the key metric to gauging a particular candidates ability to capture the GOP nomination.

CNN is running a GOP Delegate Scorecard. You might want to bookmark that page as we'll be referring to it often in the weeks ahead. The current count (last update Jan. 9) is:

Romney---30
Huckabee-21
McCain---10
Thompson--6
Paul------2
Giuliani--1
Hunter----1

The "magic number" required to secure the nomination is: 1,191

The bottom line is that it is still way too early to count anyone in, or anyone out. Candidates that are well funded for the long haul have the best shot at picking up delegates as they go. But will a wave of momentum develop for one particular candidate? There's no evidence of that from these first contests.

Update: McCain Move on Huckabee Has Begun

Jonathon Martin's Blog at The Politico:

Asked what he would say to conservatives still suspicious about his candidacy, McCain interrupted the question.

"I say a very large portion of it, the conservative base, voted for me yesterday — I thank you," McCain said, alluding to his victory among registered Republicans in the N.H. primary. "I will continue to expand that base."

McCain cited two reasons — one old and one new — to make his case as to why Christian conservatives should get behind him.

"A very large portion of the evangelical community is becoming more and more concerned about climate change because of our biblical obligation to be good stewards of our planet," McCain said. "That clearly is an issue that I’m in complete sync with the evangelical community on."