Super Tuesday Forecast

Dark McClouds with patches of Romney sunlight. Probability of gloom: 80%!

Since the South Carolina primary, I admit I haven't posted as frequently on the latest polling updates for the GOP presidential nominating contest. However, on the eve of Super Tuesday, a few brief reflections:

• Zogby's California poll with an extraordinarily large sample of 915 likely voters gives the nod in that state to Romney at 40% over McCain at 32%. A Rasmussen poll in the same period shows a tie while two other recent CA polls (notice smaller sample size) show McCain ahead. (recent CA polls). Note also that California awards it's 173 delegates based on the candidate winning each congressional district. McCain could capture a significant number of delegates.
• In the remaining Super Tuesday Western states there is not sufficient polling data to make a prediction. It's possible Romney could do well in these states, but there are also not a great number of delegates at stake.
• The race in Georgia is extremely close between McCain and Romney but Huckabee is only a few points off both. In most polls in Tennessee, Missouri and Alabama McCain is leading followed by Huckabee.
• In the Northeast, Only Massachusetts looks solid in the Romney column and McCain has large leads in New York and Connecticut which award all their delegates to the winner and New Jersey.

Pollsters Rasmussen and Zogby have been on major media today describing a small boomlet for Romney, but also cautioning that it is unlikely to effect the outcome significantly.

One bright and hopeful sign that has gone widely unreported was Mitt Romney's win in the Maine GOP Caucus on Saturday capturing 52% of the vote even though McCain had been endorsed by the states two liberal GOP Senators Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins.

The Mitt Problem

Mitt Romney's current appeal is that he isn't John McCain. Considering that Romney was the second or even third choice for many voters who had initially shied away from supporting the former Governor of one of the most liberal states, that says more about the weakness of John McCain in the GOP than it does about the strength of Mitt Romney.

During the early part of the 2007 race the field was wide open. And as late as last fall, who thought McCain would stage such a remarkable comeback? Not even his supporters who were largely silent until he started to win.

If Mitt scores well enough on Super Tuesday, it's reported that he intends to carry on and fight it out state by state in the contests which follow Super Tuesday. There, he would be able to focus his anti-McCain forces intensely, but the available delegates in those contests are half what they are on February 5th.

There is a countervailing group of GOP insiders who insists that it would be better if Romney stepped aside after Super Tuesday and devoted all his efforts to helping GOP candidates win in 2008. Thereby, he would be the natural choice in 2012 if McCain failed. In other words, it would be Romney's "turn" which is the same idiotic thinking behind letting McCain have his "turn" in 2008.

Sorry folks... After this, it's OUR TURN again, and we're not going to be dictated to by any more of these Washington insiders!