It was just two days ago that I repeated my warning that the paid, professional political infrastructure of the progressive/Big Labor axis was a real threat to unseating Obama in 2012. More evidence of this problem came from Tuesday's result in the special election in West Virginia to fill out the remainder of former Governor Manchin's term. The Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin beat GOP challenger Bill Maloney 50%-47% even though Obama's approval in the state is at 28% and Maloney had hung West Virginia's implementation of ObamaCare around the neck of Tomblin.
After big GOP wins in special elections for Congress last month Nancy Pelosi dismissed any hint of a message or referendum. Predictably, Democrats had no qualms about claiming a win for their message in this contest:
"Tonight the people of West Virginia sent a clear message to national Republicans," Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, chair of the Democratic Governors Association, said in a statement. "Even in the most competitive circumstances, Governor Tomblin was able to highlight his record of effectiveness and withstand Republican attempts to nationalize the race."But the real story here is just how effective the progressive/Big Labor axis is in organizing a get out the vote effort despite the fact that the most residents in a particular state oppose Democrat policies. We saw the same paradigm at work in close elections in Colorado and Nevada last year.
Hence my repeated warning that even if Obama is down a few points in key states he can still win that state and put together the winning combination he needs in the Electoral College and claim re-election in 2012.
The GOP's best hope for winning big in 2012 means they must recognize that the old model of volunteer based campaigns no longer works against the well funded professional political infrastructure of the progressive/Big Labor axis. Get smart GOP and take a page from the Left's playbook while there is still time!