Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Obama's Polling Bounce: What Goes Up Comes Down!

History shows that the candidate in the lead following the conventions is not always the candidate who wins in November!

I have to pity our liberal friends. They got SOOO excited when Bill Clinton energized the Democrat Convention in Charlotte and Obama saw a small bounce following the event.

Were these observers more seasoned in their experience they would know full well that a minor bump isn't a springboard to victory. They fail to realize that what goes up also comes down.

Even liberal analysts like Nate Silver have to write posts recommending caution as Nate did on Monday:
Our forecast model does assume that Mr. Obama’s numbers are likely to be slightly inflated by the polls right now — perhaps by a point or two, is our best guess — because of his convention.
Silver also mentioned that recent PPP polls are "a point or two Democratic-leaning." In other words, they tend to overstate Obama's support. Recent gains in these PPP state polls are nothing to crow about. Take for example the PPP poll for North Carolina giving Obama a 1 point lead. That poll is countered by a Survey USA poll a day earlier showing Romney with a ten point lead. Nate Silver rates Survey USA as one of the top polling firms in 2010.

Historical Perspective

The Gallup Poll keeps records of it's polling trends for presidential elections going back to 1936. These graphs teach us an important lesson in politics about trends and timing.

First,a reminder that at this time 4 years ago John McCain was ahead of Obama. After the 1988 Democrat Convention, Michael Dukakis was beating George H.W. Bush by 17 points.

But my favorite is the trend from the 1980 election shown above.

In a week the noise from both conventions will have subsided and the campaign will progress. I stick to my original forecast that marked the 99 day countdown to November 6th. In that post I state with near absolute certainty that Obama will NOT get the same level of support he did in 2008. There is clear evidence that he is losing ground with the various demagraphic groups which propelled him to victory in that year. So, any poll which shows him getting more votes in a particular state than he did in 2008 is clearly WRONG!

After the smoke from the conventions clears I'll do another roundup of swing states.

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