It's been my considered opinion (based on years of experience in politics at every level from the Court House to the White House) that Obama's high watermark for fooling voters was 2008. And if my expertise isn't good enough for you there's a study by a Democrat think tank which shows Democrat voter registration in key states is down 800,000 from 2008. Polls showing Obama getting more votes in 2012 than he did in 2008 are flat out WRONG!
As Abe Lincoln said: "You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time." The problem for Obama is that fewer and fewer people are drinking his Kool Aid. A recent Gallup Poll showed that 14% of Obama 2008 voters would not vote for him again. That fits with a number of anecdotal reports which show Democrats abandoning Obama for a variety of reasons.
Citizens United put together the following video which puts the face on the Obama exodus:
Voters who got swept up in hopenchange in 2008 have a chance to correct their mistake in 2012. Vote ROMNEY/RYAN!