In a new Rasmussen poll released today, 51% of those responding said they "would like their vote to turn control of both the Senate and the House over to the Republican Party." 42% disagree. That matches much of the generic ballot polling (RCP average) we've seen the past few months.
Their remains every indication that the big wave many of us expect continues to sweep House races where more and more Democrats are vulnerable. But earlier GOP advances in a slew of vital Senate races seem to be evaporating. Last week, I first posted on this trend and instead of abating, the trend in favor of Democrats has spread to include the once thought safe race in Pennsylvania where Pat Toomey (R) had been comfortably ahead of Joe "Job Gate" Sestak.
Here's the latest map from Real Clear Poltics. Check the latest RCP list of Senate polls here.
Visit Real Clear Politics and click on individual states for race details.
I know it's easy to dismiss some polls as being an inaccurate reflection of the voter's intention, but that's why the RCP averages are so important. They smooth out the bad polls. Let's not kid ourselves, many of these Senate races are now tightening to the point where for all practical purposes they are tied.
And we now, when there's a close race Dems have a habit of "finding" the votes they need, so be warned!
There's another old rule of politics: you don't want to peak too soon. We may find that in some of these races, the GOP candidate's support started to level off and even decline. That may be due to a combination of the Dem negative ad assault and Obama's efforts to energize the Dem base and bring home their voters.
Here's a graph of the RCP average for the Colorado Senate race which illustrates this point. Note: The following charts are updated in real time with the latest RCP polls.
We're also seeing the same thing, to a lesser degree, in the Kentucky race:
Notice the jump in Sestak's support in Pennsylvania:
Angle is maintaining a slight lead in Nevada, but too close for comfort:
Two Bright Spots:
The Democrats are redoubling their efforts in these and other states. It's up to us to answer their challenge. And there are more of us than there are of them so let's get out there and start taking back our country one race at a time!