Just a few weeks ago we were talking about how the experts were shocked at the poor performance of the U.S. economy and news stories about the failure of Obamanomics usually included some variation of surprising or "unexpected" bad news.
Now it seems the so-called experts who have got it wrong all this time might be hedging their bets:
Forecasts for Growth Drop, Some Sharply
By: Motokoa Rich
The New York Times via CNBC
June 25, 2011
A drumbeat of disappointing data about consumer behavior, factory sales and weak hiring in recent weeks has prompted economists to ratchet down their 2011 economic forecasts to as little as half what they expected at the beginning of the year.
Two months ago, Goldman Sachs projected that the economy would grow at a 4 percent annual rate in the quarter ending in June. The company now expects the government to report no more than 2 percent growth when data for the second quarter is released in a few weeks.
Macroeconomic Advisers, a research firm, projected 3.5 percent growth back in April and is now down to just 2.1 percent for this quarter.
Both these firms, well respected in their analysis, have cut their forecasts for the second half of the year as well. Then this week, the Federal Reserve downgraded its projections for the full year, to under 3 percent growth. It started the year with guidance as high as 3.9 percent.
My guess is that there is a little c.y.a. going on among the experts. But perhaps they would also like to blunt the coming bad news and avoid any more repeat of headlines with the word "unexpected" in them. Or perhaps they are just hoping that if they lower expectations enough that Obama will be able to point to any slight improvement as a sign his plan is working.
Either way, it's further proof that Obama's economic policy is a dismal failure. Time for another P.R. campaign and more slogans about recovery summer?
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