Thursday, April 28, 2016

GOP Primary Voter Surge Doesn't Necessarily Translate to Winning General Election

If GOP nominee doesn't organize get out the vote effort in key states it won't matter how many millions of new voters come out nationally!

The headline on the Drudge Report was dramatic: "Trump most votes in Republican history" and linking to a story in the New York Post describing how Trump is on the path to secure the most primary votes ever cast for a candidate in GOP history. Brietbart, which backs Trump proudly proclaims that GOP turnout is up 8.7 million votes, a whopping 60 increase. But does this mean Trump has an easier path to actually winning the general election if he is the GOP nominee? Not so much.

The previous record holder for most Republican primary votes was George W. Bush in 2000. Remember how close that election was? As reported in the political blog 538 studies indicate that larger primary turnout is no guarantee of success in the fall:
In four of five elections in our data set, the party with the larger raw vote increase in the primary lost the national popular vote in the fall. For the Electoral College, the party with the larger vote increase lost three of five times.
Trump's big vote score isn't bad news. But unless it's apportioned to the key states that determine the win in the Electoral College it won't matter how many more votes Trump gets over Hillary. This might be news to Trump supporters who may be paying attention for the first time, but you have to score enough victories state by state to be elected President.

In 2012 Obama won the Electoral College with 332 votes to Romney's 206. It takes 270 to win. Below I list the ten closest races offering 130 E.C. votes. Obama took nine of these. Romney only won North Carolina and it's 15 E.C. votes. It's likely that these states will also be very close in 2016. Flip enough from Obama's win in 2012 to a GOP win in 2016 to take away 64 votes without losing other Romney states and 2016 is a GOP victory.



While encouraging, the chart above showing a huge surge in primary isn't necessarily decisive for the general election this fall. I call your attention to the final stat on that chart which explains how Obama was able to squeeze razor thin margins out of these key states. Fairvote.org used Federal Election Commission reporting by the presidential campaigns to determine the number of field offices each campaign had in the key states above. Notice something? Obama out-organized Romney in these states by opening dozens of field offices staffed with professional, paid employees. In too many instances Romney relied on volunteers.

After Romney's loss in November 2012 the GOP engaged in what it called an "autopsy" to find out what went wrong. There was a great deal of hand-wringing that somehow the Party had not done enough to reach out to minorities who traditionally vote Democrat. But Obama didn't worry about reaching out to voters who typically vote Republican. He used field offices to mine votes in areas where their strength was greatest. Full time paid staff driving voters to early voting centers banked tens of thousands of votes that were key to victory in the states above.

Republicans were aware that Obama had hired a large staff. They just didn't seem to figure out what they were doing. From a December 2012 report in the Boston Globe:
Rich Beeson, the Romney political director [] said that only after the election did he realize what Obama was doing with so much manpower on the ground. Obama had more than 3,000 paid workers nationwide, compared with 500 for Romney, and hundreds of thousands of volunteers. “Now I know what they were doing with all the staffs and offices,” Beeson said. “They were literally creating a one-to-one contact with voters,” something that Romney did not have the staff to match.
Trump is fond of telling anyone who will listen that he's smarter than this bunch. Yet his campaign got smoked by Ted Cruz in a number of these state conventions were delegates were assigned. And with the Democrat Governor of Virginia signing a recent order granting over 200,000 felons the right to vote the dead in cemeteries in key states can't be too far behind as the new swing voters for 2016.

And when members of Trump's own family fail to vote for him because they forgot to register I can't be too assured that Trump and his reality show team understand the mechanics of winning in the fall. This is one time I would love to be wrong. It just doesn't happen very often!

Saturday, April 23, 2016

They Lecture us on Paying Fair Share but Both Obama and Bernie Sanders Paid Less than 20% in Income Tax

Dems and socialists love to tell the rest of us how to live but always exempt themselves!

Obama enjoyed an effective tax rate of 18.7%. Bernie Sanders got away with a rate of 13.5% on his 2014 return. That's lower than the rate Mitt Romney paid. Remember what noise Dems made about Romney's taxes?

According to their own standards Obama and Sanders are not "paying their fair share." But who is surprised? They just want to tell the rest of us to pay more while exempting themselves. Nothing new there!

Brits May Suggest Obama Go Back to Kenya After He Sticks His Nose in Referendum on EU Membership and Threatens Trade Retaliation

Obama threatens to send Britain to the back of the bus!

With a reference to 20th Century southern segregation Obama threatened to send Britain to the "back of the queue" if that country votes to exit from the European Union in an upcoming referendum. It was an astonishing interference in the affairs of another country that would never be tolerated if the Brits did the same here. Brits are outraged!

Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London and a key backer of the referendum for a British exit from the European Union (Brexit) referred to Obama's Kenyan heritage and dislike of Brits in an op-ed to explain Obama's behavior.

Meanwhile, Obama showed up at Windsor Castle for lunch with the Queen. Anything strike you are odd about the following photo? Leaving the 90 year old Monarch to get herself out of the car Obama struts for the camera.

Obama: Hey Queen, you're 90, I don't need to hold the door for you!
In another photo, the Queen can be seen riding in the car with Michelle. Want to guess what's on the Queen's mind?

Caption this photo. My guess is QE2 is thinking "I'm 90 years old and I still have to put up with this clown?"
The first time Obama met the Queen he bestowed on her an iPod loaded with his speeches. Let's hope he gave her a more appropriate birthday present this time around. A signed photo perhaps?

Obama continues to embarrass the United States overseas and weaken alliances with our oldest partners. Oh well, what harm can come of that?


Friday, April 22, 2016

War on Women: Dems in Virginia Restore Voting Rights for Rapists and Murderers

And you thought Ted Cruz played hardball? Not even close!

Imagine if Republicans restored the voting rights in a key state to over 200,000 felons including violent rapists and murderers. "GOP War on Women" would be the screaming headline. Press coverage would include the rape victims and family members of murdered women all accusing Republicans of playing politics with the safety of citizens. Democrats do it in Virginia and there's hardly a peep!

In a key state like Virginia where the margin of victory for Obama in 2012 was about 150,000 votes this huge dump of felons onto the voting rolls is a naked attempt to lock down Virginia for Democrats at the expense of law abiding citizens.

It's just another example of the kind of tactics we can expect from Democrats in this election year. Poor old Trump who can't get his supporters to show up at GOP conventions won't know what hit him!

Wednesday, April 20, 2016

Trump got 60% of Vote in New York but 90% of Delegates. You Don't Hear Cruz Whining!

If the result were the other way around we can imagine what Trump would be saying!


After Repeated Complaints About the Money in Politics Bernie Sanders Outspends Hillary in New York Media by 2 to 1

Another example of how liberals dictate different rules for the rest of us than they are willing to follow themselves!

Bernie Sanders constantly rails about the influence of money in politics. But according to the Center for Public Integrity Sanders spent $6.8 million on media in New York compared to $3.8 million for Hillary.

And for all Sanders' blather about billionaires buying elections it's important to note that Trump won New York in a landslide but only spent $67,000 on media.

Heck Bernie, if you can't convince the hard left voters in New York to propel you to victory along with your massive media spending how do you make the case you can beat Hillary for the nomination?

Monday, April 18, 2016

In Georgia, Trump Snookered Again. If he can't manage delegate selection process what makes you think he can defeat Hillary?

Hillary will be much more devious than Ted Cruz ever dreamed!

On Saturday the Georgia Republican Party held district conventions to select the delegates that will attend the Republican National Convention in Cleveland in July. At these district meetings the Cruz and Rubio supporters showed up in force; Trump supporters not so much. Despite the fact that Trump won the Georgia Primary by nearly 40% and was assigned 42 delegates many of those actual delegates will be Cruz supporters. By state law those delegates are bound to vote for Trump on the first ballot. But if there is a second ballot they are free to vote for Cruz or another candidate.

As they do whenever they get out organized, Trump supporters are hopping mad. But they have only themselves to blame. As in other states like Colorado if Trump supporters don't show up at these meetings they have no valid complaint to make if things don't go their way.

Trump likes to brag that our leaders are stupid and that he is smart and will get smart people to work for him. But apparently it's the Cruz campaign that has a better understanding of the process and how to effectively organize.

And what does this say about Trump's ability to organize a general election campaign if he were the nominee? Does he think Hillary or any Democrat is going to be more evenhanded than Ted Cruz? I'm reminded of the following chart from the 2008 presidential campaign. Obama outspent McCain in key states by about 3 to 1. That enabled him to finance a get out the vote effort, particularly through early voting and field offices to give him the edge in those vital states. Obama did the same thing in 2012 while Romney wasted his money on campaign ads. Have we learned our lesson now? I'm not so sure.

Democrats know that to win you need to organize in key states. Why hasn't the GOP figured this out?
There is no evidence to indicate Trump is building the kind of campaign infrastructure that would allow him to prevail in a general election against the Democrats. And if he can't out organize Cruz in these state organizational activities there is real concern about his ability to wage the kind of campaign needed this fall!

P.S. The New York Times has an easy and informative graphic presentation to walk readers through the complicated process of translating primary votes to delegates to votes at a convention. If you are confused about the process, and who isn't, take a look.

UPDATE: Trump supporters whining about Missouri delegate assignment after winning ten more delegates than Cruz in primary which Trump won by 1,726 votes. Trump supporters are again AWOL as Cruz forces are more organized. Question: was it fair that Trump got more delegates in what amounted basically to a tie? Is it fair that Trump supporters are whining now even though Cruz supporters are following the rules for delegate assignment?

If Trump supporters are AWOL when the important work of delegate assignment is happening, what makes you think they will be around to make the phone calls, knock on the doors, put up the yard signs and drive voters to the polls? 

Thursday, April 14, 2016

Russian Jets Buzz U.S. Warship Near Poland as Obama's Weakness Invites More Aggression

Remember when Obama canceled the missile defense deal with Poland hoping for a "reset" in Russian relations? He got the reset. Just not the one he claimed he wanted!

Throwing our Polish and Czech allies under the bus at the start of the Obama Administration by canceling the hard fought missile defense deal was supposed to appease the Russians. There was celebration in Moscow. Obviously Putin knew early on that Obama could be rolled. Obama hoped that appeasing Russia would allow a "reset" in relations. In the years that followed Russia has become more belligerent than ever. Invading Ukraine, sending troops to Syria and taking ever more aggressive military action. All Obama has done in return is to express his "concern."

And here we go again! Russian jets and helicopters buzz a U.S. warship in the Baltic Sea this week while on maneuvers with Poland.  At one point a jet came within 30 feet of the Navy Destroyer USS Donald Cook in what the U.S. Navy described as a "simulated attack." Ship operations were suspended due to the danger.

So close to danger and all Obama does is express "concern."
Obama's response? More empty words. That's worked so well in the past hasn't it? White House Spokesman Josh Earnest acknowledged "repeated incidents over the last year" that are not "consistent with international law." Earnest concluded "we continue to be concerned about this behavior."

How many years will the Obama Administration do nothing but express their "concern" over Russia's aggressive, unlawful and belligerent behavior? Obama's weakness must continue to cause allies like Poland to have their own "concern" about the failure of leadership in the White House and the value of aligning with the United States. How many future wars will start because the Nobel Peace Prize President did nothing more than express "concern?"

UPDATE: The lesson of Obama's weakness hasn't lost on China which cheered America's "humiliation." No one will be surprised if China follows suit. Obama's weakness in opposing China's fortification of artificial islands in the South China Sea continues to move the day closer that actual hostilities will result!

UPDATE: Russia blames U.S. for fracas. I'm surprised Obama hasn't offered an apology. Give him time!

Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Whiner: Trump Claims to Be So Smart But Gets Outrun for Delegates by Ted Cruz in Colorado

He says he's the guy who can make better deals but doesn't take the time to do his homework for delegate selection in key states!

On Saturday Ted Cruz won all 34 delegates from Colorado at the GOP State Convention. This win culminated a process which began at the local precinct level where 60,000 Colorado voters gathered on March 1 to vote for representatives at that convention. Donald Trump didn't take the loss lying down. He and his supporters accused Cruz of "cheating" and using "Gestapo tactics." Trump bellowed that "The people of Colorado had their vote taken away from them by the phony politicians....How is it possible that the people of the great State of Colorado never got to vote in the Republican Primary? Great anger — totally unfair!"

Once again, Trump's mouth seems to run away with him before the facts are considered. Every state party has the right to set up their process however they want. There is no requirement for a primary. The process in Colorado is as it has been in prior elections and the system is not secret. Every candidate including Trump had access to the rules and to the process.

To say Cruz "cheated" or engaged in "Gestapo tactics" because he managed to follow the existing rules and prevail is ridiculous. Trump had the same opportunity as Cruz yet ignored it.

Trump's candidacy is founded on the premise that he knows how to make better deals and he will hire smart people to make sure we don't get snookered by countries like China. Heck, if Trump can't manage to follow the process for delegate selection in Colorado why should we believe he can manage the government better than other candidates?

Was it unfair to Cruz when Trump won all Florida's delegates even though he got less than 50% of the votes? In fact, an analysis by NBC News shows Trump winning more delegates than his share of the primary vote.  Is Trump cheating?

Voters in Colorado showed up by the tens of thousands to vote for delegates to their state conventions. Ted Cruz worked hard to win their support. Trump did not. Now he's just whining about it. Perhaps Ted Cruz would do a better job dealing with China!

Sunday, April 10, 2016

Good News for Renewable Energy as Battery Breakthrough Makes Economic Sense

Now, if they could only make the rest of green energy tech make economic sense they might be on to something!

Obama has tried to force green energy technology down our throat to enrich his greenie crony friends. But frankly, most of what his green crowd wants to do makes little economic sense. Even with government subsidies, alternatives to conventional energy are only affordable for the very rich.

But while Obama permits wind turbines to kill bald eagles and skirt wildlife protection  legislation and solar panels remain hopelessly inefficient, there is hope at least for one aspect of renewal tech: batteries. A company called Biosolar has developed a battery made from common plastic, not toxic chemicals, that is lighter and holds more juice at much lower cost than current technology permits. And it didn't take some massive government program to bring it about. It presents the possibility of making a whole range of electric based energy technology more affordable.

If only the wizards of smart who want to cram inefficient and expensive green tech down our throats spent as much time working on practical solutions like Biosolar batteries the problem might be solved. But then, they might not be able to enrich themselves as fast as they currently do at government expense!


Friday, April 08, 2016

Bill Clinton: "The World is Coming Apart." Who is to Blame?

Can't blame this one on Republicans!

In March when former President Bill Clinton cited "the awful legacy of the past eight years" his handlers were quick to spin it that Republicans were to blame even though a discussion of legacy is only ever a reference to a President.

Bill did it again this week when he said "a lot of things are coming apart around the world now." No kidding Bill. What was your first clue? But you can't blame Republicans on this one. Your WIFE was Secretary of State for the first four years of the Obama debacle. It's a correct appraisal of the legacy of both Obama and Hillary Clinton.

I still can't get over how Obama mocked Romney's concern about Russia during the 2012 presidential debates saying "The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back." Russia took that as a green light to invade Ukraine and send troops to Syria to bomb our allies.

Bill Clinton is right. Obama has a terrible legacy at home and abroad. The problem for Hillary is that she was an integral part of the mess we see in the world today. It all started to unravel when she was Secretary of State!
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