Wave Goodbye to the Dem 2006 Election Wave

Last Sunday, I reported the first rumblings of change in the conventional wisdom that Democrats were headed for a huge win in the 2006 election campaign. With the post "Is the 2006 Election Tide About to Turn?" I suggested that the Democrat Tsunami may be nothing more than a choppy day at the beach.

And now, just a few days later, new polls indicate the positive movement that myself and others were sensing as early as last week.

Here are a few races where the evidence of a Dem wave has petered out. Source: Real Clear Politics Latest Polls. Click links for complete information.

• Missouri Senate Race, Rasmussen 10/25 - 10/25 500 LV Talent (R) 50% , McCaskill (D) 48% Talent +2.0% This latest result matches similar movement in the Missouri race which now gives Talent the edge. This seat is a must hold for the GOP.
• New Jersey Senate Race Rasmussen 10/25 - 10/25 500 LV Kean (R) 45% , Menendez (D) 45% Tie. Kean has been running slightly behind, but all results within the last week are within margin of error. Menendez has a corruption problem that even Harry Reid would have trouble defending. Loss of this seat would be a pickup for Republicans and likely sink Dem hopes of winning the Senate.
• Virginia Senate Race Rasmussen 10/24 - 10/24 500 LV Allen (R) 49% , Webb (D) 48%
  Allen +1.0%. George Allen has moved to the lead in all but one poll in Real Clear's latest tally. News that challenger Webb wrote a pornographic depiction of man-boy sex may just sink his candidacy.
• Ohio Senate Race SurveyUSA 10/23 - 10/25 563 LV DeWine (R) 37% , Brown (D) 57%
  Brown +20.0% OUCH! But the complete roundup of polls shows Brown with a single point lead. Brown is an extremely liberal Congressman with a voting record to match. It's hard to imagine Dewine with a 4 to 1 cash on hand advantage in the final stretch not making that case.
• Tennessee Senate Race Hamilton Beattie (D) 10/21 - 10/24 800 LV Corker (R) 45% , Ford (D) 47% Ford +2.0. Ford is ahead by only 2 points in a Democrat paid poll? What a laugh! The majority of other Tennessee polls show just the opposite.
• Maryland: Wednesday's poll update included a Democrat paid poll with Cardin(D) up by 12 points and a Republican sponsored poll with Cardin only up by 2. That's in addition to a ten day old poll showing a tie. After a strong debate performance by Steele (R), look for good numbers in the next Rassmussen poll.
• Montana: Polls in the first half of October show Conrad Burns (R) moving into the margin of error zone with Democrat Jon Tester. The Barron's financial analysis method discussed in Sunday's post gives the edge to Burns. Stay Tuned.
• Pennsylvania: That same Barron's analysis gives the edge to Rick Santorum (R). But all the polls in Pennsylvania continue to show him behind. We're waiting for updates in the days ahead.
• Michigan: Debbie Stabenow(D) retains a lead, but challenger Mike Bouchard has a fresh influx of money from the National Republican Senatorial Committee to run this great ad.
• Rhode Island: Challenger Sheldon Whitehouse retains a narrow, single digit lead over incumbent Lincoln Chafee(R).
• Connecticut: Joe Lieberman (I) is moving into the double digit safety zone as Challenger Ned Lamont (D) is discovering that endorsements from Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton and nearly every kook leftwing blogger isn't enough to propel him to victory.

We'll be digging into the House races next and updating the Senate as new polls come in.

One thing is clear: Dem hopes to take the Senate in a 2006 feeding frenzy are fading fast.