John Bolton

John Bolton

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Friday, October 16, 2015

Who is Winning the 2016 Money Race? Plus, a Democrat War About the Coronation of Hillary?

It's  getting interesting!

Third quarter fundraising and spending reports for 2016 presidential candidates are in. The New York Times has a great visual summary of the information. The graphics below are an excerpt (and grainy images at that). To see the full graphic, go here.

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders may top the chart for contributions to their individual campaigns, but note that total contributions to GOP candidates is greater.  Does that indicate greater interest in GOP campaigns? Well, that would match with the blowout of viewership for GOP debates which was NOT matched by the Dems.

Cash on hand shows the potential ability of candidates to organize and advertise as the first caucuses and primaries approach in February. For the GOP, note the strength of Ted Cruz followed by Carson, Rubio and Bush. This is not to say that one of those with fewer dollars couldn't emerge to take an early prize in states like Iowa or New Hampshire. It just means that such an outcome is less likely.

A lot of candidate money has already been spent on organization. And don't forget the Super PACS which are ready to step in. The chart above shows Bush, Cruz and Rubio in the stronger position.

Finally, from Real Clear Politics the updated chart for GOP candidates polling averages. Note that Fiorina has taken a three point dip while Ted Cruz seems to be slowly and steadily gaining. Rubi, Fiorina, Cruz and Bush are now clustered as the underdog alternatives to Trump and Carson. Money may make the critical difference for who emerges as that underdog champion.

Democrat Insurrection Over Hillary's Rigged Coronation

A month ago I shared with you the open rebellion in the Democrat grassroots over debate schedules that seemed designed to favor Hillary Clinton. Since then things have gotten worse, not better. Top party leaders are now openly criticizing DNC chief Debbie Wasserman Shultz for shutting down discussion and ramming through a pro-Hillary process (1,2). It seems that Debbie is about as popular among the Democrat rank and file as she is among Republicans. Oh joy!

The next GOP debate is October 28 on CNBC. After that, expect to see a winnowing of the GOP field. But even then, we're still months away from the first real contests and anything can happen!

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